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Focus: Double carbon target "Big time"! Accelerate the embrace of affordable Internet, the offshore wind power industry chain to welcome new opportunities!

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(Summary description)Compared with onshore wind power, offshore wind power has high technical barriers, large initial investment and long project cycle. However, the offshore wind is generally larger than the onshore wind speed is more stable, the power generation time is longer, the utilization rate of equipment is twice as high as the onshore wind power, and has a certain regularity, which is conducive to peak-valley deployment.

Focus: Double carbon target "Big time"! Accelerate the embrace of affordable Internet, the offshore wind power industry chain to welcome new opportunities!

(Summary description)Compared with onshore wind power, offshore wind power has high technical barriers, large initial investment and long project cycle. However, the offshore wind is generally larger than the onshore wind speed is more stable, the power generation time is longer, the utilization rate of equipment is twice as high as the onshore wind power, and has a certain regularity, which is conducive to peak-valley deployment.

  • Categories:News
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  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2020-02-24 11:54
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Source: Caihua
Editor's note: Compared with onshore wind power, offshore wind power has high technical barriers, large initial investment and long project cycle. However, the offshore wind is generally larger than the onshore wind speed is more stable, the power generation time is longer, the utilization rate of equipment is twice as high as the onshore wind power, and has a certain regularity, which is conducive to peak-valley deployment.
Human exploration of outer space, for more living space, information, and the development of new energy on the earth, in order to strive for coal, oil and other non-renewable resources to replace, "heaven and earth" are increasingly urgent.
In terms of "new and old energy" alternatives, China has diversified alternatives such as photovoltaic, hydrogen and wind power, and the development is relatively mature. In the field of offshore wind power, in particular, The rise of China's rush to install.
First, offshore wind power is an important direction in a dual carbon perspective
In terms of the global energy environment, major economies in the world have set carbon neutral targets one after another, and have stepped up efforts to promote green energy. Many countries around the world have taken wind power and photovoltaic power as an important path to achieve carbon neutrality.
In this environment, countries around the world have established targets for offshore wind power. According to Capital Securities research, the European Commission wants to increase offshore wind installations from 25 GIGawatts today to 450 GIGawatts by 2050. The United States explicitly grants a 30% offshore wind investment tax credit to projects starting from 2017 to 2025, and plans to deploy 30GW of offshore wind by 2030 (the United States currently has only two small offshore wind farms), reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 78 million tons per year. Japan plans to increase its offshore wind capacity to 10GW by 2030 and 30-45GW by 2040.
As the first and third countries in the world in terms of installed offshore wind power, The UK and Germany have set the target of installing 40GW of offshore wind power in 2030 and 2040 respectively.
In China, offshore wind power is becoming an important breakthrough in the field of wind power. With the promotion of policy guidance and early subsidies, China's offshore wind power industry has entered a period of rapid development. By the end of 2020, China's total installed offshore wind power capacity was about 9GW.
The 14th Five-Year Plan continues to open up new prospects for the growth of offshore wind power. Since the release of the "dual carbon" target, coastal provinces have responded positively based on the advantages of consumption and wind resources, taking offshore wind power as an important direction of new energy development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
By the end of June 2021, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have basically defined the new installed targets of offshore wind power in the 14th Five-year Plan as 17GW, 8GW and 4.5GW respectively.
China's newly installed offshore wind power capacity is expected to exceed 37GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Capital Securities judged that the newly installed onshore wind power will maintain a slight growth trend from 2023, while the offshore wind power will enter a period of rapid growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
Second, 2021 to meet the rush to grab the tide, affordable Internet is not far away
2021 will be the last year for China's central subsidies for offshore wind power. Existing offshore wind power projects approved as required and connected to the grid by the end of 2021 will be included in the scope of central government subsidies according to corresponding price policies, while newly approved offshore wind power projects will no longer be included in the scope of central government subsidies.
Therefore, 2021 has become the year of "rush installation" for China's offshore wind power. From January to June 2021, China's offshore wind power installed 2.14GW, up 101% year on year, achieving rapid leap-forward development, and the annual installation is expected to hit a record high.
After 2021, China's central financial subsidies for offshore wind power will withdraw, and the domestic offshore wind power industry chain is facing greater cost reduction pressure.
But some provinces represented by Guangdong have already introduced local subsidy schemes. In June 2021, Guangdong province issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting orderly Development of Offshore Wind Power and Sustainable Development of Related Industries, which will give investment subsidies to projects approved by the end of 2018 and connected to the grid with full capacity from 2022 to 2024 in the sea areas under provincial administration. In 2022, 2023 and 2024, full capacity grid-connected projects will be subsidized 1,500 yuan, 1,000 yuan and 500 yuan per kilowatt respectively.
According to the prospectus data of Three Gorges Energy, the construction cost of offshore wind power has risen under the rush tide this year. The unit cost of offshore wind power in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 15000-17,000 yuan /kW, and the unit cost of offshore wind power in Fujian and Guangdong is about 17,000-24,000 yuan /kW.
The real growth of the wind industry began with the oil crisis in 1973, and demonstration wind farms began to be built in the 1980s as a new source of power for the grid.
With the maturity of wind power technology, offshore wind power has become an important force of wind power. However, from the pv, onshore wind power, offshore wind power price comparison, the offshore wind power is not dominant.
According to IRENA statistics, the global PHOTOVOLTAIC LCOE (leveling KWH cost) decreased from usd 0.381 / KWH in 2011 to USD 0.057 / KWH in 2020, a decrease of 85%; LCOE of onshore wind power decreased from 0.089 USD/KWH in 2010 to 0.039 USD/KWH in 2020, with a decrease of 56%. LCOE of offshore wind power decreased from usd 0.162 / KWH in 2010 to USD 0.084 / KWH in 2020, a decrease of 48%.
Although the LCOE cost of offshore wind power has decreased, it is still the higher branch of new energy. According to the latest data from IRENA, the total installation cost of China's offshore wind power in 2020 is $2968 /kW, and LCOE is $0.084 / KWH (about 0.54 yuan/KWH). There is still a gap between China's offshore wind power and parity.
Large-scale and large-scale is the core of reducing the investment cost of offshore wind power. In recent years, the proportion of installed wind turbines of 3MW and above in China has risen, laying a good foundation for cost reduction, efficiency improvement and affordable Internet access.
Recently, China's first affordable offshore wind power project -- CGNC Shanwei Jiazi 500,000-kilowatt offshore wind power project has started piling fan foundation no.20, which is of great significance to the coming era of affordable offshore wind power.
China chuang Securities is expected, Guangdong, Jiangsu is expected to take the lead in 2025 sea breeze parity Internet access. According to datang Electric Research Institute forecast, China's onshore wind power per KWH cost will decrease from 0.41 yuan/KWH in 2018 to 0.33 yuan/KWH in 2023, a decrease of 20%; The cost per kilowatt hour of offshore wind power will drop by 18% from 0.5 yuan/KWH in 2018 to 0.41 yuan/KWH in 2023.
Offshore wind power is actively embracing the era of parity. With the realization of parity of offshore wind power, the market space of industry chain will be broader and broader in the future.
Third, spare parts to complete machine development, industrial chain performance increased
Peking University and the offshore wind development trend analysis, points out that offshore wind farm is mainly made up of a certain scale of wind power base and transmission system, wind power base including wind turbines, such as, fan blades and the tower and installation part, transmission system by ac collector lines, maritime booster stations and reactive power compensation equipment, submarine cables, onshore substation and the reactive power compensation equipment.
From the perspective of the current industrial chain development, most parts of wind power have been localized, but a few parts such as main bearings, converters, transformers and paddle changing systems of large capacity offshore wind turbines still rely on imports.
At present, Huaneng, together with China Sea Decoration, Dongfeng Wind Power and other units, has realized the localization of a series of core and key components such as blades, main bearings and PLC master control system.
From the whole machine, the layout of domestic wind turbine plants lags behind the overseas giants. Capital Securities Research report shows that the large capacity units that have realized prototype hoisting and grid connection mainly include mingyang Intelligent 10MW, Dongfang Electric 10MW, Electric wind power 8MW and Golden Wind Technology 10MW.
In 2016 and before, Shanghai Electric dominated the entire domestic market, with Goldwind technology and Vision Energy accounting for about 8% of the market.
However, with the rise of Mingyang intelligent in 2019, the domestic formation of Shanghai Electric, Goldwind Technology, vision energy, Mingyang intelligent four offshore machine business pattern. Data from Capital Securities Research report show that in 2020, the total share of the four manufacturers in the domestic offshore wind power market will reach 83.25%.
Thanks to the replacement of old and new energy sources under the dual carbon development goal and the entry of offshore wind power into the parity era, offshore wind power is expected to usher in a high boom cycle.
"Spring River warm duck prophet", at present, industry chain companies in the first half of 2021 or the first three quarters of most harvest.
In the first half of 2021, Runbang Marine, a subsidiary of Runbang, received orders of nearly 30,000 tons of offshore wind power products, and Runbang Industrial won the bidding for five wheeled container cranes at Ningbo Port, indicating strong growth momentum in the future.
In the first half of 2021, the company's offshore wind power equipment as the core of the offshore engineering equipment and supporting equipment achieved revenue of 788 million yuan, up 209.38% year on year, accounting for 41.71% of the revenue, up 25.89 percentage points compared with the same period last year, driving the growth of the overall business.
Mingyang intelligent units have an obvious trend of large-scale, and the leading technology of offshore wind power continues to break through. In the first half of the year, the revenue of the company's fan and parts segment was 10.254 billion yuan, up 36.28% year-on-year. The external sales capacity of the company's wind turbines was 2.34GW, up 15.74% year on year, among which onshore wind power was 1.19GW, down 29.1% year on year, and offshore wind power was 1.15GW, up 236.94% year on year.
According to the company's latest disclosure, the company's net profit in the first three quarters of this year was 1.85 billion to 2.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.33% to 119.77%, benefiting from factors such as the scale and proportion of offshore project delivery.
summary
With the country's "dual carbon" development, the replacement of old and new energy sources is accelerating, and offshore wind power is benefiting significantly. With mingyang intelligent and a number of domestic high-quality enterprises as the representative of the machine leader, for the wind power offshore era to lay a solid technical reserve.
Secondary market, On October 12, wind power concept stocks performed strongly, Jin Modern up 13.70%, Baoding Technology, Oriental Cable, Mindong Electric Power, Daijin Heavy Industry trading limit.

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